Investigating immersion and migration decisions for agent-based modelling: A cautionary tale

List of Authors

  1. Jakub Bijak ,  
  2. Ariana Modirrousta-Galian ,  
  3. Philip A Higham ,  
  4. Toby Prike ,  
  5. Martin Hinsch ,  
  6. Sarah Nurse
Article Authors & roles Authors Peer review record Peer review Metrics
Cite

Abstract

Background

Agent-based modelling provides an appealing methodological choice for simulating human behaviour and decisions. The currently dominant approaches based on static transition rates or unverified assumptions are restrictive, and could be enhanced with insights from cognitive experiments on actual decision making. Here, one common concern is that standard surveys or experiments may lack ecological validity, limiting the extent to which research findings can be generalised to real-life settings. For complex, highly emotive decision-making scenarios, such as those related to irregular migration, the typically used short, methodical survey questions may not appropriately map onto complex real-world decisions of interest. Immersive contexts may offer more accurate representations of reality, potentially enhancing the usefulness of experimental information in multi-disciplinary modelling endeavours.

Methods

This preregistered study, aimed directly at examining the effect of immersion on risk-taking in the context of migration decisions, and indirectly at informing a multi-disciplinary construction of an agent-based model of migration, presents a choice-based interactive fiction game in which players make migration decisions to advance through a story.

Participants

(N = 1000 Prolific users) took part in one of four experimental conditions, three involving different renditions of the game attempting to create immersion, with the last condition presenting the decisions in standard survey format.

Results

Although addressing the lack of ecological validity in survey data is important for improving agent-based modelling methodology, the experimental design used to tackle this issue, while responding directly to modelling needs, proved too complex. The created experimental conditions ended up too distinct from each other, involving stimuli that differed in quantity and content. This introduced several unintended and uncontrolled confounds, making it impossible to meaningfully interpret the results of this experiment on its own. Our results act as a cautionary tale for agent-based modellers, highlighting that the modelling needs should not override the principles of experimental design, and provide motivation for more rigorous research on this topic.

Corresponding author
Jakub Bijak
0000-0002-2563-5040
Grant information

This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme; European Research Council grant 725232 BAPS: Bayesian Agent-Based Population Studies.

The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Copyright
© 2024 Jakub Bijak (Corresponding Author, Co-Author); Ariana Modirrousta-Galian (Co-Author); Philip A Higham (Co-Author); Toby Prike (Co-Author); Martin Hinsch (Co-Author); Sarah Nurse (Co-Author) Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

First version published
Latest version published
Revised

Amendment

Version 3 of the paper has been amended to directly address some of the very helpful reviewers' comments to Version 2, for which we are very grateful. The key changes included clarifying the this dual study aims, with the general objective of assessing the feasibility of using experimental data in agent-based models, and the specific objective related to studying the impact of immersion in the context of risky migration decisions. We have also described the game design, clarified the experimental setup and the process of recruiting participants, and added a summary of the collected demographic information. In this version, we also signpost to the follow-up study, which has since been published (Modirrousta-Galian et al., 2024, Simulation & Gaming, 55(4): 716-735). The details of the revisions made are listed in our responses to the individual reviews.

Comments

Authors & roles

Jakub Bijak

University of Southampton, Southampton, UK

Roles
Corresponding Author, Co-Author, Conceptualization, Funding Acquisition, Methodology, Supervision, Writing – Original Draft Preparation, Writing – Review & Editing
0000-0002-2563-5040

Ariana Modirrousta-Galian

University of Southampton, Southampton, UK

Roles
Co-Author, Conceptualization, Data Curation, Formal Analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Visualization, Writing – Original Draft Preparation, Writing – Review & Editing
0000-0003-2925-2976

Philip A Higham

University of Southampton, Southampton, UK

Roles
Co-Author, Conceptualization, Formal Analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Supervision, Validation, Writing – Review & Editing
0000-0001-6087-7224

Toby Prike

University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia

Roles
Co-Author, Conceptualization, Formal Analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Writing – Review & Editing
0000-0001-7602-4947

Martin Hinsch

University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK

Roles
Co-Author, Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing – Review & Editing
0000-0002-7059-7266

Sarah Nurse

University of Southampton, Southampton, UK

Roles
Co-Author, Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing – Review & Editing

Downloads over the last 12 months:

Cited by

via Crossref

View citing articles